puntgm

The rankings you draft from can't see who plays.

Every free ranking list is a per-game number. A per-game number rates a player who appears 55 times exactly like one who appears 80. Correcting that is worth +11 to +20 percentage points of category win rate, measured on three completed seasons — here is the measurement.

So this board carries an expected-games column, and a vs z column showing where it disagrees with the per-game rankings. That gap is the whole product.

# Player Value Exp. games Per-game rank vs z Top categories
Per-game production measured from 2025-26 game logs over the top 156 players by minutes per game. Compounded to a week over the league's scheduled games per week, each played with an expected-availability probability projected as of 2026-08-24 — a beta-binomial rate shrunk toward the pool, not last season's realized games. No count of the games this player actually went on to play enters the rank. Category rates are measured, not projected forward.